The European standard population[1] gives more weight to older people and is reflective of the age profile of people in Europe. These standard populations are artificial population profiles that allow comparisons between different proportions of people of different ages. This allows comparison of incidence and/or mortality rates across geographical areas or over time.
The European Standard Population (ESP) used for many cancer statistics was created using data for 1976 (‘ESP1976’), but it is no longer representative of European Union Member States. The population is aging and projections show a progressive shift to the older ages, particularly the proportion of the population aged 65 and over.[2] A new ESP (‘ESP2013’) was calculated by Eurostat to address the changes in the age profile in Europe to be a better reflection of the population.[2]
What are the differences between the 1976 and 2013 European Standard Populations?
The ESP2013 will better represent the underlying burden of the disease in the population.
The ESP2013 will be closer to the crude rate.
The ESP2013 is weighted more heavily towards older ages.
The ESP2013 has more age groups; 85-89, 90-94 and 95+ (where previously the limit was 85+). However, due to the availability of population estimates of assured quality for those aged 95+ the Office of National Statistics (ONS) has recommended an upper age limit of 90+ should be used.[3]
Comparison of ESP1976 and ESP2013 Standard Populations, Weight by Age Group
What does this mean for cancer rate figures?
For almost all cancers, there is an increase in the age standardised cancer incidence rate using the ESP2013 compared to ESP1976, and for some cancers this change is large.
All Cancers Excluding Non-Melanoma Skin Cancer (C00-C97 Excl. C44), Number of New Cases, Crude, 1976 and 2013 European Age-Standardised (AS) Incidence Rates, UK, 2012
|
ESP1976
|
ESP2013
|
Cases
|
338,623
|
338,623
|
Crude Rate
|
549.1
|
549.1
|
AS Rate
|
427.7
|
590.5
|
AS Rate – 95% LCL
|
425.7
|
588.5
|
AS Rate – 95% UCL
|
429.7
|
592.5
|
For all cancers combined (excluding non-melanoma skin cancer) the ESP1976 age standardised incidence rate for the UK in 2012 is 426.5 per 100,000 for males and 376.2 per 100,000 for females. The impact of the ESP2013 is that all rates appear to increase, although this effect is larger for males than females. The incidence rates using ESP2013 are 670.1 per 100,000 (56% increase) for males and 534.8 per 100,000 for females (42% increase).
All Cancers Excluding Non-Melanoma Skin Cancer (C00-C97 Excl. C44), 1976 and 2013 European Age-Standardised (AS) Incidence Rates comparison, UK, 2012
|
ESP 1976
|
ESP 2013
|
Difference
|
Percent change
|
Males
|
426.5
|
667.1
|
240.6
|
56.4
|
Females
|
376.2
|
533.3
|
157.1
|
41.7
|
The change in the rate for each cancer will be dependent on the age distribution of diagnoses. Although there is an apparent shift in the incidence rate when calculated with ESP2013 this difference is very similar across time, so there is very little impact on the measurement of the trend. The percentage increase for incidence rates between 1979-1981 to 2010-2012 for ESP1976 is 27.3% compared with 27.8% for ESP2013.
All Cancers Excluding Non-Melanoma Skin Cancer (C00-C97 Excl. C44), 1976 and 2013 European Age-Standardised (AS) Incidence Rates, GB, 1979 to 2012
The impact on mortality rates will be similar.
Figures using the ESP1976 and ESP2013 are not comparable because the weights used to represent the population structure are different.
It is possible to compare different points in time or different cancer figures which use the same ESP, but not between ESPs; for example:
Bowel cancer incidence rates for 2012 using ESP2013
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compared with
|
Lung cancer incidence rates for 2012 using ESP2013
|
Yes, can be compared because has same ESPs.
|
Bowel cancer mortality rates for 2012 using ESP1976
|
compared with
|
Kidney cancer mortality rates for 2012 using ESP1976
|
Yes, can be compared because has same ESPs.
|
Bowel cancer incidence rates for 2012 using ESP2013
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compared with
|
Bowel cancer incidence rates for 2007 using ESP2013
|
Yes, can be compared because has same ESPs.
|
Bowel cancer incidence rates for 2012 using ESP2013
|
compared with
|
Bowel cancer mortality for 2012 rates using ESP1976
|
No, can’t be compared because has different ESPs.
|
Bowel cancer incidence rates for 2011 using ESP1976
|
compared with
|
Bowel cancer incidence rates for 2012 using ESP2013
|
No, can’t be compared because has different ESPs.
|